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| Photo by Adam Hunger/USA TODAY Sports |
October 3, 2017
First, let me just say that the playoffs are a gigantic crapshoot.
Whatever happened during the regular season does not matter one bit. You can throw all the matchup and head-to-head stats out the window. It's a whole new season.
Win-loss records. Homerun totals. ERA. None of it matters – especially for a do or die game like the Wild Card.
Nothing can replicate this one game, win or go home scenario. Every hit. Every walk. Every error. It’s all extremely magnified.
It’s like fast-forwarding right to a game 7. Anything can happen.
That being said, there are ways you can give yourself a better shot at winning. And it starts with the starter.
Why? Because a single run can mean the difference between moving on or going fishing. And if you get in the hole early, you’re up shit’s creek without toilet paper.
So, in order to even think about winning this game, you want someone on the mound who you can trust in high pressure situations. Someone who won't crumble or fall apart at the first sign of trouble.
Someone with loads of MLB experience. Someone who’s seen every situation imaginable. Someone with many years of success under his belt. Someone with playoff experience.
Luis Severino is not that someone.
He had a breakout regular season. Great. His fastball reaches 100 mph. Good for him. He finished with a 2.98 ERA. That’s fantastic.
None of it matters.
Let’s see what happens when he takes the mound. When the reality of starting in a pressure-packed, single elimination game gets to him. Will his heart beat through his chest. Or will he be able to handle it like a champ.
It’s hard to know when he’s never been put in that situation before.
He has little-to-no experience. He certainly has no postseason experience. Heck, he hardly has any regular season experience.
He's just 23-years-old. He’s been in and out of the rotation for the past few years. This is really his first full year as a starter. And you’re going to rely on him to come through in this type of game? He’s practically a rookie.
He's just 23-years-old. He’s been in and out of the rotation for the past few years. This is really his first full year as a starter. And you’re going to rely on him to come through in this type of game? He’s practically a rookie.
I have nothing but respect for Yankees manager Joe Girardi. He’s an excellent manager. And he’s been with this team all year, so I have to assume he knows what he’s doing.
But from the outside looking in, I just can’t wrap my head around this decision.
He’ll obviously have a quick hook if Severino falls flat on his face. But it may be too late by then.
Sure, with Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson and Chad Green, the Yankees have one of the best bullpens in the biz. Maybe the best.
But the game can get out of control quickly.
So why not start an uber experienced veteran who’s been there and done that?
Severino might be the most talented hurler on the staff by leaps and bounds. But in a 1-game pressure cooker like this, I’ll take experience over talent any day.
Personally, I would go with Sonny Grey or Masahiro Tanaka.
Grey is a veteran with a couple playoff starts under his belt with Oakland. And Tanaka has also seen his share of MLB action.
In fact, Tanaka has actually started a Wild Card game for the Yankees before. He did so in 2015. He didn’t win, but at least he’s had the experience and knows exactly what to expect.
That’s why I’m leaning towards the Twins taking this Wild Card game.
While the Yankees are starting the untested Severino, the Twins are starting seasoned veteran Ervin Santana.
I don’t care that Santana is 0-5 in 6 career starts at Yankee Stadium. Or that in his last start at Yankee Stadium, he only went 5.2 innings, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits. Not one of those games were a season-on-the-line Wild Card game in October.
Santana is playoff tested. He’s had plenty of postseason experience with the Angels, seeing action in 3 ALDS’s and 2 ALCS’s.
Again, a Wild Card game is a total crapshoot. The starters may not even factor into who ultimately wins the game. Or they may be the deciding factor. Who knows.
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But what I do know is Luis Severino is not the guy you want on the mound. For the Yankees’ sake, they better hope I’m wrong.
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